Newcomer Paderborn & Union Berlin without chances despite euphoria?
⚪️Bundesliga 2019/20 relegation bets & odds
The Bel floor of German football promises an exciting fight for relegation this season, because with 1.FC Cologne a very strong promoted player should normally have nothing to do with the lowest table region, so Cologne is high on the Bundesliga relegation for betting Quotas get and a tip therefore hardly seems interesting.
🔺SC Paderborn: 1.05
🔺Werder Bremen: 1.44
🔺Fortuna Dusseldorf: 1.72
🔺FSV Mainz: 4.50
🔺Hertha BSC: 15.0
🔺1. Union Berlin: 51.0
For this reason, some of the Bundesliga clubs that have been established for many years, such as FC Augsburg, must fear for relegation more than ever this season.
Since the field of candidates is relatively wide, there are interesting betting odds beyond 3.50 for very realistic Bundesliga relegation bets.
Betting that Paderborn is relegated does not promise a great deal of friction, but at first glance it seems to be a sure thing when looking at the Bundesliga relegation odds.
The second climber from the lower house, Union Berlin, is also not very popular with the bookies. Behind it, FC Augsburg, SC Freiburg and Fortuna Dusseldorf are fairly equal.
In this article we deal with the five aforementioned clubs and will use detailed analyzes of management structures, moods in the clubs as well as departures and newcomers to take a look at which Bundesliga relegation candidates are eligible for a tip.
▪️Preseason: 2nd division
▪️Best descent rate: 1.05
The SC Paderborn pursues a very interesting transfer strategy and has primarily strengthened with talented players from the third division.
Marcel Hilßner (Hansa Rostock), Streli Mamba (Energie Cottbus), Cauly Oliveira Souza (MSV Duisburg) and Johannes Dörfler (Uerdigen) came to East Westphalia.
At first glance, these are very surprising transfers, as Hilßner and Dörfler, for example, were not even regulars at their third division clubs.
On closer inspection, however, they are all players with (especially technical) great potential.
Trainer Steffen Baumgart deliberately chose this path. He only values some experience in the defensive network.
For the goal came with Jannik Huth a competitor for Leopold Zingerle, who made at least a handful of Bundesliga games for Mainz 05, and the central defense could be the 30-year-olds Uwe Hünemeier and Christian Strohdiek, who had some Bundesliga games. Overall, however, Baumgart wants to continue the dynamic and research-oriented offensive that successively overran the third and second leagues.
In no way should concrete be touched, but the SCP-DNA developed in the past two years must continue to be immediately recognizable.
An ambitious undertaking, which, however, should at least guarantee highly attractive games. For the bookmakers, the SCP relegation candidate is number 1. We trust the Baumgart squad to provide some surprises, but we also believe that it will be extremely difficult to get at least two clubs behind 34 games allow.
▪️Preseason: 3rd second division
▪️Best relegation odds: 51.00
Union Berlin has an extremely wide squad with 34 players. Of course, this opens up many opportunities and makes the team more variable overall, but if the team fails, the mood in the squad should also quickly turn negative, as various players will be dissatisfied due to a lack of sufficient time.
With Neven Subotic, Christian Gentner and Anthony Ujah, the Iron people got some much bigger names than the co-climber from Paderborn.
The three aforementioned alone have the experience of almost 700 Bundesliga games.
In addition, the Unioners also used all the other shelves that the transfer market offers: young talents (Keven Schlotterbeck), above-average second division players (Robert Andrich from Heidenheim) and reinforcements from abroad (Sheraldo Becker from ADO Den Haag) .
Ascent trainer Urs Fischer is likely to be stuck in the saddle even if the start is wrong, if you can believe the assertions of club president Dirk Zingler.
The betting providers see the Berliners as clear relegation candidates and offer the second lowest rate after SC Paderborn for going to League 2.
We also see more mass in the Union squad than Bundesliga class and think that despite impressive fans, who will certainly be good for one or the other point at the Alte Försterei, the Iron Group face an extremely big task with staying in the league.
▪️Preseason: 15th Bundesliga
▪️Best relegation rate: 11.00
For the bookmakers, FC Augsburg is one of the biggest relegation candidates alongside the two climbers SC Paderborn and Union Berlin.
The last impression that the Bavarian Swabians left in the previous season will certainly play a role here.
With the 1-8 in Wolfsburg on the 34th matchday of the 2018/19 season, he was completely disastrous and somehow symptomatic of the past season of the FCA, in which there was unusually great unrest in the club.
For example, Jens Lehmann was hired as an assistant coach after the start of the second half of the season and released after 71 days.
Technical director Stephan Schwarz was banished from the bank and had to pack his bags completely a short time later.
Head coach Manuel Baum also had to leave and has now taken over the German U20 national team. As of April, Martin Schmidt was his new coach on the sidelines.
Manuel Baum was previously addressed verbally by Martin Hinteregger, which led to the suspension of the defender.
Caiuby was also suspended because of the overdraft for his winter vacation in Brazil.
However, further verbal attacks on tree by Jeffrey Gouweleeuw remained without consequences.
In summary, this is simply a devastating image that also affected the team’s performance.
Now there should be a fresh start, for which Carlos Gruezo (Dallas, formerly VfB Stuttgart), Noah Sarenren Bazee (Hannover 96) and Florian Niederlechner also had some interesting newcomers.
We don’t see Augsburgers in their individual class with players like Philipp Max, Marco Richter, Andre Hahn, Michael Gregoritsch or Alfred Finnbogason as a team that belongs to the last three.
In addition, Martin Schmidt is a Bundesliga coach who has been tried and tested in the Bundesliga and has done a very good job for many years in Mainz under similar budget conditions, which is why the odds of Augsburg relegation are too low for us.
▪️Low season: 13th Bundesliga
▪️Best relegation rate: 251.00
Before every new Bundesliga season, SC Freiburg belongs to the closer or at least expanded group of relegation candidates, which is no different this year. Returning player Jonathan Schmid (FC Augsburg) is the best-known name among the newcomers.
“Sixes” Patrick Kammerbauer from Holstein Kiel and the two South Koreans Chang-hun Kwon (Dijon) and Woo-yeong Jeong (Bayern Munich U19) also came.
As an alternative to left-back Christian Günther, young Luca Itter from Wolfsburg was also hired, but he is struggling with ankle problems.
All in all, there are therefore no names on the side of the entrances that suggest a carefree season.
In our opinion, the Breisgauer are partly weak, partly average in goal, defense and midfield.
Only the storm is with Luca Waldschmidt, who shone at the U21 World Cup and Nils Petersen definitely fit for the Bundesliga.
Christian Streich, the veteran trainer, will in turn have to live up to his reputation of making the best possible out of modest means.
Bookmakers see Freiburg as one of the five most endangered teams, but they tend to have a slightly better chance of staying in the league than Augsburgers.
An assessment that we cannot share purely from the existing individual class in the two cadres.
▪️Preseason: 10th Bundesliga
▪️Best relegation rate: 1.72
Fortuna Düsseldorf was the surprise team par excellence in the previous season.
Until shortly before the winter break, the forecasts of bookmakers and experts, who viewed Fortuna as the number 1 relegation candidate, seemed to be still true, but then the Fortunes took nine points from an English week and, in doing so, surprisingly defeated Borussia Dortmund.
In the end there was an outstanding tenth place, but of course, the competition also gave the competition a look at the best Fortuna players.
Therefore, the Düsseldorf team had to let Benito Rahman and Dodi Lukebakio go in the summer, who each had 14 scorer points in the previous season. With Dawid Kownacki, however, an absolute storm jewel could be held.
The most spectacular new arrivals so far are goalkeeper Zack Steffen (borrowed from Manchester City and designated as clear number one), Belgian Nana Ampomah, Erik Thommy (VfB Stuttgart) and Bernard Tekeptey (borrowed for two years from Schalke 04 and last season with 16 scorer points in the second division for SC Paderborn).
The betting providers rate the Fortunes somewhat more than SC Freiburg and FC Augsburg.
An assessment that we cannot yet share 100% based on the existing squad.
However, if you take into account that sports director Lutz Pfannenstiel, who is excellently networked worldwide, has still announced various top-class newcomers by the end of the transfer period, we are in line with the assessment of the bookmakers and believe that the Düsseldorfers will leave at least three teams behind, so no money should be invested in Bundesliga relegation bets at odds around 5.50.
⚪️Bundesliga 2019/20 relegation – forecast and betting base trend
The bookmakers in the 1.Liga 2019/20 offer by far the lowest odds for the descent of SC Paderborn.
This is a conclusive and understandable assessment for us, because within two years the club has moved from a sporting relegation to the regional league (the third division only managed to remain in the third division because TSV 1860 Munich did not receive a license).
Many of the players who have accompanied this path completely simply lack the necessary individual class for the upper house.
In addition, all new signings seem to have been planned and carried out independently of the league, because even these have no significant Bundesliga experience. Union Berlin takes a different approach and has signed three top-tier Bundesliga players, Subotic, Gentner and Ujah. But the squad is clearly too big and doesn’t look too structured.
⚪️Key facts – Bundesliga 2019/20 relegation betting
There is almost no Bundesliga experience at all in the SC Paderborn squad.
Union Berlin’s huge squad could quickly lead to team dissatisfaction.
Augsburg has a lot of individual class, but must bring calm to the club.
In addition to the two promoters, the Bundesliga relegation prognosis for the betting providers looks like that FC Augsburg, SC Freiburg and Fortuna Düsseldorf should make 16th place and thus the relegation among themselves.
We see the Augsburgers best positioned in terms of personnel.
Absolute top players with above-average Bundesliga levels in all parts of the team, such as those with Gouweleeuw, Max, Gregoritsch, Richter and Finnbogasson at the FCA, are not to be found in the squad of Freiburg and Düsseldorf.
At the moment we are still seeing the Breisgauers and the Fortunes in the fight for relegation, but in contrast to the SCF, the Rhinelanders have announced several top newcomers. If these planned obligations actually succeed, then SC Freiburg is our third Bundesliga relegation tip next to Paderborn and Union Berlin.